It may help others to know what you yourself are doing to prepare for the possibility of Ebola and subsequent pandemic. Even if not preparing for a pandemic itself, maybe you are preparing for a public Ebola panic which could crush our JIT (just in time) manufacturing and distribution systems to negatively affect our infrastructure (the public not going to work, emptying store shelves of food and supplies, etc..).
Most everyone is in their own unique state of preparedness with the supplies that you currently have on hand. My question is, “What are you doing (right now – or soon) to prepare for Ebola?
IF more Ebola cases continue to pop up in the United States, there will reach a point in time where the public at large will begin to panic. I don’t know how many Ebola cases that will be, but I have a feeling that it won’t need to be too terribly many before the public really begin to get nervous about their own location exposure to others.
For example, if several more people come down with Ebola in the Dallas area, the people who live in and around Dallas will quickly become even more concerned than they already are. At what point (how many Ebola cases) will the public at large (e.g. in Dallas) begin to consider stocking up on food and staying home instead of risking exposure? I don’t know… 5? 10? 50?
IF Ebola begins to pop up in other places around the country, it will expose the fact that it can happen anywhere – and people will no longer feel so safe (having felt that Ebola was only happening in Dallas while they themselves live in say, Atlanta or Boston, etc..).
So, in my opinion, before Ebola itself becomes the main issue, I believe it will be public panic at large which will first cause major problems before the pandemic rips through the population.
Just remember this, if Ebola is doubling every 3 weeks, at some point it could go exponential.
Could the deadly Ebola virus rage into a worldwide pandemic which eradicates half of all human life with a year? The headline reads extremely dramatic and sensational, I know…
Based on recent statements that the number of Ebola cases has been doubling about every three weeks, a simple math exercise reveals the following:
First, I will say that the following simple mathematical exercise of Ebola transmission is (hopefully) unlikely (to be this extreme) given that the current “reproduction number” (1.5 – 2) is based on that from the stricken African countries, and would hopefully lessen somewhat from quarantine and advanced medical efforts taken in developed countries.
(The reproduction number estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola)
Having said that though, it is also believed that for every known reported case of Ebola (in Africa) there may be 6 or more going unreported (raising the reproduction number).
Here’s the thing folks – Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control just said “The speed at which things are moving on the ground, it’s hard for people to get their minds around. People don’t understand the concept of exponential growth,”
So my ordinary math exercise illustrates exponential growth in the context of three weeks:
Ebola Week 0 (10,000)
Ebola Week 3 (20,000)
Ebola Week 6 (40,000)
Ebola Week 9 (80,000)
Ebola Week 12 (160,000)
Ebola Week 15 (320,000)
Ebola Week 18 (640,000)
Ebola Week 21 (1,280,000)
Ebola Week 24 (2,560,000)
Ebola Week 27 (5,120,000)
Ebola Week 30 (10,240,000)
Ebola Week 33 (20,480,000)
Ebola Week 36 (40,960,000)
Ebola Week 39 (81,920,000)
Ebola Week 42 (163,840,000)
Ebola Week 45 (527,680,000)
Ebola Week 48 (655,360,000)
Ebola Week 51 (1,310,720,000)
Ebola Week 54 (2,621,440,000)
Ebola Week 57 (5,242,880,000)
Ebola Week 61 (The entire planet)
From the example above, given the mortality of Ebola somewhere between 50% and 80%, in a little over a year this illustrates eradication of half or more the population.
Again, this only goes to illustrate a ‘perfect storm’ based on a doubling every three weeks. In reality, I would highly presume that this would not be the case over time – however who’s to say that developed countries will be able to successfully control this? (Our normalcy bias and expectations that we are all-powerful beings – may be flawed) And who’s to say that this Ebola doesn’t mutate further – increasing it’s transferability?
Exponential growth nearly always catches everyone off-guard. It always appears to start slow. The problem is that an exponential curve will always suddenly and dramatically begin to arc steeply up – catching most by surprise. It’s a very powerful thing.
It wouldn’t hurt you to be a little (or a-lot) prepared for this. The thing is – the $hit will hit the fan way way before the numbers of cases gets completely out of control. Our just-in-time manufacturing and delivery systems will completely collapse when a tipping point of panic is reached within the population. It could happen very much sooner than you might think.
At some point in time, the sheeple will panic. When that time arrives, it will be too late for you.
While the current Ebola outbreak continues to be downplayed by the mainstream, the fact is that there may be a tipping point in time when enough people become frightened to the point of rushing to the stores to purchase food and supplies to hunker down.
If and when that happens – the shelves WILL empty very quickly – and may not be re-stocked for a very long time.
For those of you who are ‘aware’, do what I did this morning and examine your supplies of food and consumables. Be sure that you have enough on hand to be isolated for months (or longer).
Think about this:
We know how fast the supermarket shelves empty before a blizzard or hurricane. With an Ebola panic, the same thing will happen – but it could be a very long or even permanent shortage.
Here is how it will happen:
Most people buy food for a week at a time. They do not have much food reserves. Maybe two weeks. The reason is their faith in the food supply system. The belief that there will always be food at the grocery store.
If the deadly Ebola virus were to spread into the United States (or your country), the people will begin to panic and will begin to stock up more food storage – maybe several months or even six months food. They will have suddenly realized (an ‘oh $hit’ moment) that in order to increase their odds of survival – they will need to avoid contact with other people – and will start buying extra food and supplies to self-isolate for awhile.
Imagine what will happen:
The demand for food will balloon 5 times or more within a short time. Shoppers will begin to see empty shelves in the grocery stores which will stimulate even more panic buying. This will signal the end of our reliable food supply system. The stores will be picked clean almost instantly. This will cause people to want even more (perhaps a year) reserve food. Since we do not have much food warehousing and a near-fixed resupply capability, we will be potentially looking at a PERMANENT condition of no food on the shelves.
The Just-In-Time (JIT) supply chain has been trimmed to manufacture, distribute, and resupply stores based on today’s ‘normal’ consumption. Once that breaks, it will take A VERY LONG TIME to resupply.
We will be looking at food rationing, price controls, and worse.
We have a precarious situation indeed. And the only way to protect oneself and family is to PREPARE. Now.
My advice to you is this:
Quietly prepare for yourself and family, before the panic ensues. Do it soon. If the Ebola virus is successfully squelched, you will have lost nothing. You will be prepared for whatever may come next…
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